The region added 4,100 jobs in September. The headline is the least interesting number in the release, and reading it alone would lead a planner to the wrong conclusion about what next year looks like.
Composition, not level
Two thirds of the month’s gain sat in part-time work, and the participation rate fell by three tenths of a point. Employment can rise while the labour market weakens, and this is what that looks like in the data. Total hours worked — the measure that actually feeds our output models — were flat.
- Full-time employment is down 1,200 on the quarter.
- Average weekly hours fell to 33.1 from 33.8 a year ago.
- The unemployment rate held at 7.4 per cent only because participation fell.
| Indicator | Month | Year |
|---|---|---|
| Employment | +4,100 | +11,900 |
| Full-time employment | +1,400 | -3,200 |
| Participation rate | -0.3 | -0.9 |
| Average weekly hours | -0.2 | -0.7 |
Why this matters for a budget
A municipal revenue forecast that keys off headline employment will carry the September gain forward as if it were durable. One that keys off hours and participation will not. The gap between those two paths is roughly a percentage point of assessment growth by 2028, which is the difference between a rate increase and a rate freeze.
A forecast that has never been tested against history is an opinion.
What we are watching next
Three series decide whether this is noise or a turn: the participation rate among workers aged 25 to 54, the share of part-time work that is involuntary, and non-residential building permits. We will decompose all three by cohort in the next quarterly outlook.
The underlying model, its assumptions and its back-cast are documented in the Regional Labour Market Monitor.